Event-driven Coinbase BTC-USD research

Historical Event Table

By DisciplineIsBetter

Compares scheduled macro releases with BTC price structure before and after each event.

Language Study asset BTC-USD · Coinbase 31 releases studied · Jan 2024–Aug 2026

Research, not a signal

What has BTC normally done around CPI?

31 CPI releases studied January 2024–August 2026

NEXT CPI — — —

Current projected conclusion

CALCULATING

Reading the next event, current BTC structure, and comparable historical cases.

Pre-release probability — Bullish — · Bearish —

After first 5m — Available after the first completed five-minute candle

What to do with this read WAITING FOR ENOUGH INFORMATION The page will tighten the conclusion as the event approaches and after the first five-minute candle closes.

Review full evidence

Study reliability

How much should I trust this study?

The plain conclusion comes first. Technical diagnostics remain available under Show methodology.

RESEARCH ONLY

Bottom line WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Technical validation

Probability reliability

Each row compares the model's average forecast with the outcome rate that actually occurred.

Prospective shadow ledger

Predictions frozen before future event outcomes

Historical rows are simulations. This separate ledger records model-versioned checkpoints for future releases and never rewrites an earlier forecast.

Checking durable ledger…

Model version—

Frozen since—

Overlap policy—

A checkpoint is captured automatically when this page is open during its eligible time window. Durable cloud storage is used when the deployment binding is available.

CPI progression by release

Projected path versus what BTC actually did

Each bubble is one CPI release. Hover or select it to see the pre-CPI read, inflation data, current model projection, and actual four-hour result.

31 CPI releases

Actual BTC up Actual BTC down Matched projection Contradicted projection No model call

Each projection is walk-forward: it uses only earlier releases plus the information available through T+5m. Event-specific macro weighting and the Coinbase confirmation candle determine the call; conflicts become no clear edge.

Auditable forecast history

What the model knew at each checkpoint

T-24h, T-1h, release, and T+5m use only information available then. T+4h is the observed result.

NO CLEAR EDGE

Event-specific model—

Primary trigger—

Walk-forward training—

Historical probabilities are rebuilt from earlier releases only; later outcomes never enter an earlier checkpoint.

Historical analogues

Most similar earlier event cases

Similarity uses pre-event structure, prior-day direction, range location, macro surprise, first-five-minute impulse, volume, event family, and overlap state.

Transparent weighted distance

The study in one view

BTC reaction map around CPI

Each row shows direction and percentage change immediately before and after the 8:30 a.m. release.

BTC up BTC down Near flat Bars share a scale within each time window; exact returns are printed beside every bar.

CPI release 5 min before First 5 min after First 4 hours after CPI result

The five-minute-before value measures the final five one-minute candles before release. Post-release values measure from the 8:30 a.m. Coinbase BTC-USD release price.

Official calendar

Upcoming market events

Dates are sourced from the BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, Census Bureau, and ISM. Consensus estimates remain blank until published by a verified supported source.

Observed outcomes

CPI thesis probabilities

Every percentage shows the observed count and a 95% Wilson interval.

Automatic trade-expectancy research

Did the directional model produce a usable return?

Read-only research with a fixed T+5m entry, target, stop, T+4h time exit, and explicit cost assumption.

RESEARCH ONLY

Release date

Selected case

CPI event

Reference period

BTC at release

4-hour verdict

CPI result

CPI values

Previous · expected · actual

Measure	Previous	Expected	Actual	Result

Price-action sequence

Mechanical thesis classification

Prior context

Into CPI

First 4 hours

POC / prior-extreme test

Coinbase BTC-USD reaction windows

America/New_York calendar boundaries

Window	Open	High	Low	Close	Return

Path diagnostics

Excursion, timing, wick, volume, reversal, and retest evidence

Event-specific release anatomy

The components that matter for this report family

Data provenance and quality

CHECKING

Cross-tool context

Current market state in one strip

Fresh local tool reads are shown when available; stale or missing scans are labeled rather than inferred.

Refreshes with the page

LiquidityNO FRESH SCANOpen Liquidity to refresh ExhaustionNO FRESH SCANOpen Exhaustion to refresh BTC & S&P CorrelationLOADING30-session relationship Relative PerformanceNO FRESH SNAPSHOTOpen Relative Performance to refresh

Coinbase volumeLOADINGLatest 5m versus recent median

Automatic live read

Next CPI outlook from current BTC structure

No manual inputs. Coinbase BTC-USD structure and the historical probability model refresh when the page opens and every five minutes.

NO CLEAR EDGELoading live BTC data…

Preparing the next CPI read CALCULATING

Reading the latest completed New York day and current Coinbase BTC-USD structure.

— Pre-release probability

Bullish — · Bearish —

What can the study conclude now?

Probabilities use comparable prior releases only.

Building comparison set…

Pre-release surprise riskCALCULATINGChecking verified expectations and historical surprise frequencies.

Current BTC regimeCALCULATINGClassifying trend, volatility, and range location.

Event-specific readCALCULATINGLoading the release-family checklist.

First 5 minutes——

First hour——

First 4 hours——

5m → 4h reversal——

Prior high / low test——

At least a 1% move——

These are separate conditional outcomes; they are not one combined trade probability.

Next CPI——

Coinbase BTC-USD now—Waiting for market data

60-hour structure——

Completed previous day——

Current range location——

Expected CPI volatility——

BTC options-implied event movement

Deribit volatility and nearest-expiry ATM straddle; Coinbase remains the spot reference.

Loading options context…

4-hour implied move—DVOL estimate plus nearest-expiry straddle

Event-expiry range—Nearest ATM straddle after the release

Historical realized / implied—Median absolute four-hour move

BTC DVOL—Deribit volatility index

5% OTM put/call skew—Put IV minus call IV

Option positioning—ATM call + put open interest

Volatility term structure—Front IV minus next-expiry IV

Historical evidence —

—

Release confirmation WAITING

The first five-minute candle after CPI must confirm the provisional direction.

Next CPI consensus NOT PUBLISHED

Expected headline and core readings remain blank until a verified consensus source is available.

1PreparePrevious day + current structure

2ObserveFirst five minutes after release

3Act or avoidConfirmed or no clear trade

Directional probability and volatility are separate. A bullish or bearish lean is provisional before release; conflicting confirmation changes the result to no clear trade.

Complete sample

2024–2026 CPI event index

Select any date to open its detailed study above.

Date	Event result	Release price	5 min	4 hours	Event quality	Day high / low	Thesis verdict